In perhaps the most unexpected tech news of the year, billionaire and AI evangelist Sam Altman was removed from his CEO position at OpenAI by the company's board of directors after an apparent vote of no confidence. His exact wording in the statement: Altman's "departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, which hindered his ability to exercise his responsibilities." .
What is happening in the most publicized company in the world? Here are some totally speculative theories that we can think of in addition to others that circulate on the internet.
1. Did Altman bypass the board on a major deal?
Based on board language and the way these giant tech companies operate, this is the predominant theory circulating right now. “He's not always truthful” is a very diplomatic way of saying that Altman lied.
It's possible that Altman (and potentially OpenAI President Greg Brockman, who was simultaneously announced as President by the Board and then resigned himself) wanted to make a bold move that he knew the Board wouldn't like. It is not uncommon for these agreements to be quietly concluded in smoke-filled (or vaping) rooms and then presented as a fait accompli But if it was controversial enough and the board found out about these maneuvers, it could be the fuel for an impeachment.
But what kind of deal would be big and dangerous enough to summarily fire the company's CEO and most famous face? You were on stage two weeks ago at the developers meeting. What could have happened since then?
Few would be surprised if Microsoft, which is deeply entrenched in OpenAI as an investor and customer, was an added factor here. Could Altman have been secretly working with (or against) OpenAI's backer? If Altman wanted to kill the goose that laid the golden egg by becoming independent, that could have triggered the board's fiduciary or legal duty. On the other hand, if he were negotiating some other deal, such as an acquisition or a deeper, more exclusive integration, it could also have caused the board to become upset, either at the idea itself or at being excluded.
But if Microsoft was as surprised as the rest of us, as it says in an Axios news , it could hardly be the kind of high-stakes conspiracy that some seem to be expecting. But you have to assume Microsoft would say that anyway. Even if they had been working with Altman on some kind of secret plan, they can honestly say that they were surprised by his firing and they “remain committed to the association”.
2. Disagree on long-term strategy?
Despite being the most popular tech company in the world right now and everyone talking about ChatGPT, OpenAI isn't exactly a solid business. It is burning money in the pot faster than it can generate it, from all indications, an incredibly expensive product at bargain prices.
That's all well and good for a year or two, but at some point that strategy changes from a growth gimmick to an existential liability. Could Altman and the board have had irreconcilable differences over where that point lies?
This doesn't seem so likely. The company has pursued this very deliberately, publicly, confidently and for the long term. Altman and the board seem to be in sync on this, at least for the moment.
3. Don't the numbers add up?
On the other hand, could OpenAI be losing even traditional money than Altman admitted or projected? It seems impossible, but the costs of carrying out this operation are unprecedented, nor is the operation itself.
Or what if, and again this is pure speculation, Altman has been secretly pursuing an internal project, perhaps at significant cost, against the board's advice and without the necessary security measures that should probably accompany said investigation? It sounds a little crazy, but firing your CEO this way is also crazy. It is worth remembering the last DDoS attack.
Some kind of major mismatch in the financial department could be grounds for dismissal, but it's hard to imagine what Altman could have hidden from the board of directors. y to the CTO that would be so damning.
There is also a possibility that Altman was making personal investments in a way that the board did not agree with. With OpenAI poised to be a kingmaker in this field, he would undoubtedly be in a position of power. One would think that, as an ideologically driven person already incredibly wealthy and at the helm of the world's leading artificial intelligence company, Altman would have gotten over the need for this kind of side deal, or at least scrutiny of himself and those close to him. I would prevent him. But he can never be sure.
4. A major security or privacy incident?
The idea that the company has experienced a major, perhaps widespread, security issue is reinforced by the fact that Microsoft reportedly discontinued the use of ChatGPT internally a few days ago. OpenAI subsequently stopped supporting new registrations. If there was a serious security issue in their most important product and Altman downplayed it, that would obviously create distrust on the board.
There is also the potential for misuse at scale with the enormous amount of personal data traveling through OpenAI APIs and services.
Against this theory is the fact that CTO Mira Murati has just been promoted to interim CEO in Altman's place. It seems unlikely that anything security-related would go through the CEO and not the CTO, or that the two would disagree to the point that one could be fired this way and the other swapped to clean up the mess. As the board statement notes, Murati is in charge of product and security, among other things. Any significant problems in that department would reflect on both her and Altman.
5. Do you differentiate between the ethics or philosophy of AI?
Altman is a proud techno-optimist and often speaks fondly of the possibilities of AGI, or Artificial Intelligence generally, a theoretical software system that achieves human-like intellect and versatility.
The board statement clearly includes that “OpenAI was deliberately structured to advance our mission: to ensure that the Artificial Intelligence general benefit to all humanity” and that new leadership was necessary. Sam's enthusiasm for AGI, even in the absence of a secret project or deal, may have caused a major rift between him and the board.
It's been obvious to everyone that Altman took the company in a much more corporate direction since its origins, changing its legal status and aggressively pursuing consumer and enterprise applications. That doesn't sound much like the “mission” the board wants to promote. On the other hand, this change is not new, and it certainly does not seem like a plausible reason to abruptly fire the CEO and a few others.
6. What about intellectual property and legal liability?
Altman said at Dev Day in early November that the company does not want to incur any copyright issues by using (as he had been asked) data sets from pirated books. But a lot of research you can see contradicts that, as does almost every AI data scientist you talk to. It is extremely difficult to imagine that OpenAI built GPT-3 with the copyrighted book database (as seems to be the case) but not GPT-4 or later models.
If you were the board of directors and faced mounting accusations that your product was created from a data set that includes thousands or millions of copyrighted works, and your CEO had systematically downplayed the potential liability there How would you feel? You may be deeply hurt.
But again, if the reason were copyright liability, it seems unlikely that the board would promote the CTO. Presumably, OpenAI's chief scientific officer, Ilya Sutskever, would also be aware and is still on the board of directors.
7. Did CTO Mira Murati launch a coup?
Probably not, it seems cool and what CTO wants to be CEO anyway?
8. A “personal matter”?
When someone is expelled in a hurry, it is not uncommon for there to be some type of unprofessional behavior in the workplace. Some CEOs overlook things like having children with direct reports, but not all.
Altman also has three siblings and his younger sister, Annie, has publicly accused him of abuse. We have no way of evaluating these allegations, which involve private matters.
However, the board's interpretation of the language in firing Altman is that it was not a legal or personal issue that prompted the action, but rather a professional or business one.
The whole truth probably won't be known for a long time, since the characters in the drama have a confidentiality agreement. According to various rumors and leaks, a general meeting about the situation did not produce any revelations beyond banal assurances that the company is fine and that they will soon have a new CEO. It is normal to hear many rumors before knowing the reality.
