In the process of building a strategic plan, it is necessary to take into account the accelerators to include them as modulators of the assumptions that will later lead to the assumptions of the strategy and the plans as a consequence.
Organizations correctly focused on future challenges actively perceive and respond to accelerators and anticipate change, but that requires a rigorous and deliberate approach to looking for trends.
Only 38% of organizations have a formal process for trend detection. Most use an external impulse response approach that creates disjointed efforts and risks not taking full advantage of the positive impact that a formal trend spotting approach will have.
A properly articulated approach ensures that leaders consider trends and accelerators that exist outside of their natural responsibilities and markets, where emerging trends are often more familiar. For example, it encourages technology managers to look beyond current technology trends. Ignoring or devaluing non-tech trends will only result in gaps in the strategic planning process because their inputs will be incomplete.
Some accelerators are more obvious than others, so trend spotting should be an ongoing discipline. There can often be turning points that shake a sector, market or society as a whole. The sooner they are detected, the better and more adapted the organization will become in how to respond.
Acceleration factors are interconnected and the seven key currently adding or summing factors found in different acronyms:
| STEEPLE | Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, Legal, Ethical |
| PESTLE | Political, Economic, Sociological, Technological, Legal, Environmental |
| PEST | Political, Economic, Social, Technological |
The result is presented here as TPESTRE. For each element some strategic assumptions are shown as examples.
- Technical. The evolution, impact and disruption of technological change.
- Enhanced Personal Experience
- Offshore operations
- Enhanced computing and privacy
- Political. Attitudes, institutions and legislation that change the political environment.
- Techno-Nationalism
- Misinformation
- international space economy
- Economic. Factors of the local and global economic environment that influence companies and governments.
- Growth uncertainty
- Implementation of great global economic powers
- Rise of the digital economy
- sociocultural. Attitudes, behaviors and lifestyles of individuals and social groups.
- Changes in population models
- Redefinition of work
- Institutions created by people
- Trust / Ethics (Truth / Ethics). Ethical expectations, behaviors, duties and prejudices of people and companies among themselves and with society.
- Purpose Driven Organizations
- The great transition of institutional trust
- Privacy contextualized in the digital society
- Regulatory / Legal. Changes in laws and government policies and regulations to reward or punish particular behaviors.
- Local regulation and the multipolar world
- Government of artificial intelligence, legality and future of markets
- Focus on sustainability regulations
- Environmental Law (environmental). Technical, political, economic, cultural, ethical and legal changes that support environmental protection.
- Carbon footprint
- Sustainability based on digitization
- Tipping points in sustainability
Those responsible for all functions can use this TPESTRE approach to identify key trends, analyze their impact, and build strategic assumptions of their planning competency areas as they begin to discover what actions might be required in terms of business model, people/ capabilities and information systems.
A texample title Some trends are shown, their brief explanation, which can be observed as a reality in the market, the opportunities and the risks.
Example 1. Technological Trend: Increased Personal Experience
strategic assumption
By 2023, 30% of organizations will expand “use your own device” (BYOD) policies with “bring your own upgrade” (BYOE).
What's going on?
Augmented personal experience refers to enhancing human capabilities and ability with technology and science. It impacts how people move, perceive and interact in physical and digital spaces, as well as how they process, analyze and store information. The augmented human experience of the future exists at the intersection of medical technologies, information technologies, gaming technologies, and other digital automation systems.
What can be seen already?
- Cognitive augmentation is already being implemented and will continue to evolve rapidly.
- Wearables and mobile devices with AI-powered services provide health and fitness monitoring and analysis today.
- There is clear and current evidence that the distinction between medical device technology and information technology is blurring.
Opportunities
Until now, advances in prosthetics, sensory augmentation, brain implants, and more have focused primarily on helping people with disabilities in a clinical setting. Augmented intelligence using Artificial Intelligence can compensate for human limitations and enable a symbiotic combination of people and machines to deliver a superior personal experience.
Risks
Personalization could be expensive and highly regulated. The social acceptance of personal augmentation is uncertain. The augmented human experience opens a new path for cybersecurity attacks and exposes more personal information to commercial and government entities. Ethical challenges arise when personal enhancements are mandated or not available to select groups.
Example 2. Sociocultural trend: redefinition of work
strategic assumption
Post-COVID-19, 48% of company employees will work remotely at least once a week, compared to 30% pre-COVID.
What's going on?
Just as the Internet launched a new digital age, COVID-19 has triggered a new work era. It's an opportunity to intentionally rethink where, when and how we work, and people hope the results benefit both themselves and their organizations. As the adoption of Artificial Intelligence continues, robots (physical or software-based) will perform more and more tasks, creating a workforce where work is performed by both bots and humans.
What can be seen already?
The pandemic normalized the use of new work models, such as doing 80% of the work for 80% of the salary and the distribution of talent between organizations, offering new norms beyond the standard 40-hour work week.
Opportunities
Flexible placement strategies could lead to cost savings on critical talent, and the talent pool is potentially broader and more diverse. Greater automation of routine tasks can reduce the risk of injury and infection for employees.
Risks
Many organizations lack comprehensive workforce strategies and centralized systems through which to view, manage, and forecast mixed employment patterns. Organizational culture could suffer if not managed properly when teams include physically dispersed people and a variety of employee types (full-time, part-time, work). Pay equity is also more difficult to manage when compensation is managed in a variety of markets.
Example 3. Environmental trend: digitally enabled sustainability
strategic assumption
By 2030, digital information and technology can help reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 15%.
What's going on?
Digitally enabled sustainability involves data, technology and operations to reduce greenhouse gases. The complexity of environmental sustainability data sets and the insights required means that organizations are moving from a spreadsheet data collection baseline to using more sophisticated tools such as Artificial Intelligence, Internet of Things (IoT) and machine learning (ML). Digital helps promote sustainability beyond regulatory compliance towards new products and the performance of ecosystems across industries and sectors.
What can be seen already?
- La Royal Society estimates that digital aspects can account for a third of the reduction in GHG in the UK by 2030.
- The digital twins they can increase the performance of wind farms by 20%.
Opportunities
Executives can leverage existing digital technology platforms: AI, IoT, mobile, blockchain, and other digital technologies can help drive significant improvements in business sustainability performance and create new growth opportunities.
Risks
Digital businesses can damage sustainability. For example, the carbon footprint of training even when AI is substantial. Additionally, digital business and sustainability are often treated as separate transformations, potentially reducing the impact of both.
